Model · 16
Predictive models
Models that estimate future outcomes, behaviour or timing from available data.
When this is useful
Questions such as whether a customer will return, when that may happen or what demand to expect require a defined target and an appropriate comparison.
My contribution
I frame the prediction question, analyse the data, compare methods and interpret their performance for the intended use.
Five fixed probability groups compare predictions with complete 90-day outcomes for 3,000 fictional customers in a later holdout cohort.
What it covers
- Target and prediction horizon
- Inputs available at the time of prediction
- Candidate methods and comparison baselines
- Evaluation on data not used to fit the model
- Uncertainty, interpretation and intended use
The output
An analytical model and evaluation, with the assumptions and requirements for its proposed use.
For an enquiry, describe the question and the systems involved.
contact@fiftystork.com ↗